The EU Commission's MARS Forecasting Service has raised its crop yield estimates for cereals and oilseeds compared to the previous month, with one exception. This is how the agricultural weather is shaping up. Overall, good yield expectations at the EU level are supported by exceptionally high expectations in Spain, Portugal, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, and the Baltic states. Continued water scarcity is increasingly affecting yields in Western Belgium, Central France, Eastern Germany, Western Poland, and Hungary, especially for spring and summer crops. Conversely, yield losses due to excessive rainfall are expected for winter crops in Northern Italy, while pest infestations threaten root and tuber crops in Southern and Central Germany, as reported by Wienke von Schenck, a crop market expert at the Agricultural Market Information Society (AMI). A Very Different Picture in Europe Significant regional variations in plant development are observed throughout the EU and neighboring areas. In the East Ukraine, Turkey, Cyprus, and Western Maghreb, the irreversible effects of prolonged drought and heat have led to a significant decline in winter crop yields. Persistent rainfall deficits are still evident in Western Belgium and the Southwest Netherlands in the spring, affecting grain plant kernel filling and putting pressure on summer crops. With no predicted rainfall, the situation is expected to deteriorate further. In Eastern Germany and Western Poland, rainfall was below average but well distributed and ideal for water-deficient soils; so far, no significant effects on winter crops in the kernel filling phase have been observed. However, with little to no rainfall predicted, conditions for winter and spring crops could worsen. In Central France, the rainfall deficit has worsened since mid-May. As winter crops are currently in the kernel filling phase, persistently unfavorable conditions could reduce yield expectations. Hungary, Slovenia, and the northernmost part of Croatia have been experiencing rainfall deficits since the end of May. While the winter crop season remains positive, ongoing soil drying jeopardizes the yield potential of summer crops. Drought in Turkey, Ukraine, and Western Maghreb Large agricultural areas in Turkey continue to suffer from rainfall deficits, often coupled with high temperatures. Winter crop yields have further declined in the southeastern regions. Similar effects are observed in Eastern Ukraine, Western Maghreb, and Cyprus, where a dry winter and/or spring have led to unfavorable growth conditions, resulting in yield forecasts below the five-year average. Conversely, winter crops in Northern Italy show clear signs of stress due to an excessively wet spring, affecting field conditions and likely harvest yields. Increasing Pest Pressure in Germany Since mid-May, pest infestations have been reported in Southern and Central Germany, even extending to Northern Germany. Sugar beets and potatoes are threatened by the vector Reed-Glasswing Cicada (Cixiidae family), which spreads bacterial diseases like Stolbur. Preliminary estimates suggest that a third of sugar beet cultivation areas could be affected, making precise monitoring essential. In terms of numbers, crop yield estimates for all cereal types, except hard wheat, were raised by 1%, winter barley even by 2%. For rye, triticale, and corn, they remained unchanged from the previous month. A 1% increase is also indicated for oilseeds. The EU yield estimate for potatoes was reduced by 1% and for sugar beets by 2%. --- Here's how the agricultural weather is shaping up next week. Today, high-pressure influence is increasing from the south. This brings moist and moderately warm air to the north and dry and very warm to hot air to the south. From Wednesday night onwards, an Atlantic low-pressure front with thunderstorm-prone air will move in from the west. Thursday Throughout Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will develop in many parts of the country, some of which may be strong and locally pose a risk of severe weather. Only isolated thunderstorms in the southwest. Highs between 22 and 26 degrees in the northwest, otherwise 27 to 32 degrees, warmest in the east. Moderate to fresh and gusty winds, turning to the west during the day. Stormy in the mountains. Thursday night will bring many clouds. Showers and thunderstorms initially moving eastward, later new rain in the west and northwest, slowly shifting east and southeast. Lows between 19 and 13 degrees. Steady to stormy winds from the west along the coasts and in the mountains. Friday On Friday, a mix of sun and clouds and mostly dry weather in the southwest with temperatures between 26 and 29 degrees. Initially cloudy with rain shifting to the east and southeast in the east and southeast. Mostly dry with some breaks in the afternoon. Highs between 19 degrees on the coast and 27 degrees in the southeast. Moderate to fresh and gusty westerly winds in the northeast and east, with stiff to stormy gusts along the coasts and in the higher mountainous regions. Friday night will see clouds moving through the north but hardly any rain. Clear to mostly clear skies to the south, dry. Lows between 18 and 12 degrees. Winds will weaken. Saturday On Saturday, cloudy to mostly cloudy in the north, but little rain. Otherwise, fair to cloudy skies, longer sunny periods in the south, and dry conditions. Temperatures rising again between 27 and 32 degrees, up to 34 degrees at the Upper Rhine. In the far north, temperatures range from 21 to 26 degrees. Weak to moderate westerly to northwesterly winds in the south and southwest, otherwise mild. Some stiff gusts along the coasts. Saturday night will bring occasional clouds in the north, with only isolated showers. Mostly clear skies elsewhere. Cooling down to 18 to 13 degrees, not falling below 20 degrees in larger cities in southern Germany. Sunday Sunday will be cloudy in the north but mostly dry, with temperatures mostly ranging from 24 to 29 degrees. Lots of sunshine elsewhere with hot temperatures between 28 and 34 degrees, up to 36 degrees at the Upper Rhine. Weak to moderate winds from the west to northwest, turning to the north in the south. Sunday night will be mostly clear. Temperatures dropping to 19 to 13 degrees, locally around 20 degrees in the southwest. Monday Monday will start off sunny, with a few cumulus clouds forming over mountainous areas later, and the possibility of isolated thunderstorms towards the evening. Some occasional clouds in the north, but dry. Highs between 25 and 30 degrees in the north, slightly cooler along the coasts, otherwise 29 to 36 degrees with the highest values in the south. Light winds. Monday night will be mostly clear or partly cloudy with no precipitation. Lows between 19 and 13 degrees, possibly not dropping below 20 degrees along the Rhine and its tributaries. Tuesday Tuesday will see increasing cumulus clouds and locally strong showers and thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather moving in from the southwest. Highs between 28 and 36 degrees, slightly cooler along the coasts. Moderate winds shifting to southern directions. Tuesday night will be variably cloudy with further strong showers and thunderstorms in some areas. Lows between 19 and 13 degrees, locally around 20 degrees along the Rhine and its tributaries. Trend Forecast Wednesday, July 2-4, 2025 Unsettled weather with strong showers and thunderstorms is expected from Wednesday to Friday. A significant drop in temperatures, with barely reaching 25 degrees in the northwest and north by Thursday, while remaining (very) warm and humid elsewhere.
